House prices increased in 2009
According to a Nationwide report House prices rose in all regions except Northern Ireland during the fourth quarter of 2009, southern regions continued to experience stronger growth than northern regions and London saw the strongest growth in the quarter and also over the year.
Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:
“The final quarter of 2009 saw a slowing in the quarterly rate of house price growth across the majority of UK regions, but most regions ended the year with average prices higher than at the end of 2008. For the UK as a whole, prices rose by 1.6% in the fourth quarter, leading to an increase in the annual rate of change from -3.0% in the third quarter to +3.4%.
“Greater London was the best performing region in the quarter; prices rose by a seasonally adjusted 3.4%. This increase pushed the annual rate of change up from -1.9% to 7.0%, making London the best performing region over 2009.
“Outside of London, the East Midlands saw the strongest quarterly performance within the English regions, with a 2.8% rise in prices over the quarter, bringing the annual rate of change up from -5.4% to 2.5%. The Outer Metropolitan and Outer South East regions continued to see above average growth in the quarter and were the second and third best performing regions, with annual growth of 6.4% and 5.5% respectively.
“The northern regions generally saw weaker growth, in particular the North where prices rose just 0.4% in the quarter. The North was also the only English region not to see prices rise across the year as a whole, with an annual price change of -2.0%.
“House prices in Scotland rose 1.9% during the quarter, slightly above the UK average. This was enough to push the annual rate of change into positive territory, with prices up 1.0% compared to the fourth quarter of 2008. Quarterly price growth in Wales remained relatively weak in the fourth quarter, with a 0.9% rise recorded, leaving average prices marginally lower than one year earlier.
“Reversing the large increase seen in the third quarter, prices in Northern Ireland fell by 6.8% in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, house prices were down 6.7%, a modest improvement from the 8% year-on-year fall in the third quarter. Northern Ireland remains the worst performing UK region.
Wales top performing UK country over last decade
“Despite the sharp house price falls seen in 2008 and the first half of 2009, the 2000s has generally been a very strong decade in terms of house price growth. In nominal terms, house prices in the UK rose 117% between 1999 Q4 and 2009 Q4. Taking into account overall retail price inflation over the period, prices have risen by 68% in real terms, the strongest decade on record. This compares with a 14% fall in real terms during the 1990s.
“Wales has been the top performing country over the 2000s; house prices have risen 82% in real terms. This sharply contrasts with the 1990s, where Wales saw prices fall by 24% in real terms.
“England overall has seen the weakest growth over the 2000s of 65%, although this has varied widely across the regions. Within England, Yorkshire and Humberside has seen the strongest growth, with prices rising 84% in real terms, whilst the Outer Metropolitan region has experienced the weakest growth, with a 51% increase.
The strong growth seen in Yorkshire and Humberside might reflect that it started the decade as one of the most affordable regions, with a house price to earnings ratio of 3.0 (compared with the UK average of 3.6 in 2000 Q1).
“Whilst the strong housing market performance of the 2000s is good news for homeowners, it is less positive for those looking to get on the housing ladder. Affordability has improved since the peak in house prices in 2007, but we will enter 2010 with house price to earnings ratios across the regions at a much higher level than the start of any other decade.”
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